The Ambitious Vision of Papua New Guinea: Under James Marapes Leadership

In recent years, Papua New Guinea (PNG) has experienced significant political changes that have sparked conversations about the nation’s future. On May 30, 2019, PNG witnessed a notable shift in leadership when James Marape was elected as the country’s eighth Prime Minister. This change occurred after the resignation of the incumbent Prime Minister, and Marape’s election was marked by overwhelming support, with 101 parliamentary members voting for him against only seven for the other nominee, Sir Mekere Morauta.

Marape’s election brought with it a bold vision for the nation: he declared his aspiration to transform Papua New Guinea into the “richest black Christian nation on planet Earth” within a decade. This announcement was made during a national address on EMTV, one of PNG’s free-to-air television stations, and further emphasized on social media. This article explores the feasibility of such a vision and what it means for PNG’s future development.

Understanding Marape’s Vision

Prime Minister James Marape’s vision for PNG is both ambitious and inspiring. His goal is to elevate the country’s status in the global economic landscape, emphasizing the rich cultural and religious heritage of the nation. By striving to become the wealthiest black Christian nation, Marape aims to set a new standard for economic growth and social development in PNG.

However, achieving this vision is no small feat. To better understand the scale of this ambition, it is essential to look at the current economic landscape of PNG and compare it with other predominantly black Christian nations around the world.

PNG’s Economic Standing

Papua New Guinea is a nation blessed with abundant natural resources and a vibrant cultural tapestry. Despite these advantages, PNG faces significant challenges in achieving rapid economic growth. As of now, the country’s GDP per capita stands at approximately US$3,825, a figure that places it well below many other black Christian nations.

To put this into perspective, let’s examine the wealthiest black Christian nations based on their GDP per capita:

1. Bermuda: US$50,669
2. Barbados: US$15,001
3. The Bahamas: US$32,997
4. South Africa: US$12,294
5. St. Kitts and Nevis: US$29,130

These nations have established themselves as economically prosperous, with GDP per capita figures significantly higher than that of PNG. In particular, Bermuda, the richest black Christian nation, boasts a GDP per capita of US$50,669, making it the benchmark for Marape’s vision.

The Challenges of Rapid Economic Growth

For Papua New Guinea to achieve a GDP per capita similar to Bermuda’s within ten years, it would require an unprecedented annual growth rate of 30%. Historically, PNG has never sustained such high growth rates over a prolonged period. The country’s economic growth has been marked by volatility, influenced by factors such as global commodity prices and domestic policy challenges.

Historical Growth Rates:

• 1993: PNG experienced a significant growth rate of 15.3%, driven by favorable economic conditions. However, this was followed by a sharp decline in 1995 due to excessive government spending and fiscal mismanagement.
• 2014: Another notable growth period occurred when PNG saw a 13% increase in GDP per capita, largely due to the initial benefits of the PNG LNG project. Yet again, this growth was not sustained, as the global oil price collapse in 2015 led to negative growth in subsequent years.

These historical examples illustrate the difficulties PNG faces in maintaining high growth rates. The country’s economy is heavily reliant on natural resources, making it vulnerable to external shocks and fluctuations in global markets.

Policy Proposals and Economic Strategies

Under Prime Minister Marape’s leadership, several policy changes have been proposed to drive economic growth and address the challenges that hinder PNG’s development. These policies focus on increasing local content in resource agreements, enhancing mechanisms for corruption detection, and improving accountability among government officials.

Key Policy Focus Areas:

1. Local Content in Resource Agreements: Marape’s administration aims to renegotiate mining and petroleum agreements to ensure that PNG derives more value from its natural resources. This involves increasing local participation and ensuring that benefits flow directly to the PNG people.
2. Corruption Detection and Accountability: Addressing corruption is a critical component of Marape’s strategy. Implementing robust systems for detecting and prosecuting corruption will be essential to build public trust and create a more transparent governance framework.
3. Infrastructure Development: Improving infrastructure, especially in remote areas, is crucial for facilitating economic activities and connecting communities. Investing in roads, bridges, and essential services will help overcome the geographical challenges that limit PNG’s growth potential.

Realistic Goals and Path Forward

While Prime Minister Marape’s aspiration to become the richest black Christian nation is commendable, it is important to set realistic goals for PNG’s economic future. Given the current economic conditions and historical growth trends, achieving Bermuda’s GDP per capita in a decade may be overly ambitious.

A more attainable goal would be to aim for parity with regional neighbors such as Fiji, which has a GDP per capita of US$8,703. Achieving this target would require PNG to sustain an annual growth rate of 8.6% over the next ten years, assuming Fiji’s economy remains static.

Steps Towards Economic Transformation

To move towards becoming a high-income nation, PNG must focus on several strategic initiatives:

1. Diversification of the Economy: Reducing reliance on natural resources by promoting other sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing can provide more stability and create sustainable growth opportunities.
2. Investment in Human Capital: Education and skill development are critical for empowering the PNG workforce and driving innovation. Investing in human capital will enable PNG to compete on a global scale and attract foreign investment.
3. Enhancing Trade Relations: Strengthening trade partnerships with neighboring countries and international markets can boost PNG’s economic prospects. By expanding export opportunities and improving market access, PNG can increase its economic footprint.
4. Promoting Inclusive Growth: Ensuring that all citizens benefit from economic progress is essential. Targeted policies that address inequality and support marginalized communities will foster social cohesion and long-term stability.

Conclusion

Papua New Guinea stands at a crossroads, with the potential to redefine its economic trajectory under the leadership of Prime Minister James Marape. While the vision of becoming the richest black Christian nation within ten years may be challenging, it serves as an inspiring goal that can galvanize efforts towards sustainable development and prosperity.

By focusing on realistic targets, implementing effective policies, and fostering an inclusive growth environment, PNG can make significant strides towards becoming a more prosperous and equitable nation. The journey ahead requires collaboration between government, businesses, and communities to ensure that Papua New Guinea reaches its full potential and achieves its long-term development aspirations.

About Author